February 24,2026 – Goldman Sachs sees the U.S. economy outperforming expectations in 2026. But the bank also warns that several risks could derail that optimism.
The Bullish Case
Goldman forecasts U.S. GDP growth of 2.5% in 2026, on a Q4-to-Q4 basis. That beats the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 2.1%.
For the full year, the bank projects expansion of 2.8%.
The key driver? Tax cuts. Goldman analysts expect the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” to deliver a significant fiscal boost. Reduced policy uncertainty and easier financial conditions should also lift business investment, which Goldman sees as the strongest GDP component this year.
What Could Go Wrong?
Despite the upbeat forecast, Goldman identifies five main threats to growth.
1. A stock market correction. This is Goldman’s top near-term concern. A sustained 10% drop in equity prices through Q2 could shave 0.5 percentage points off GDP. Consumer spending, the backbone of the U.S. economy, would take the biggest hit.
2. AI-driven labour market disruption. Artificial intelligence could displace workers faster than productivity gains materialise. A rising unemployment rate would dampen consumer demand further.
3. Tariff pass-through to consumers. If businesses pass more tariff costs onto households, purchasing power shrinks. That acts as a direct drag on growth.
4. Oil price spikes. Geopolitical tensions remain a wildcard. A sharp rise in energy prices would squeeze both consumers and businesses.
5. Stress in private credit markets. Risks in private lending could tighten financial conditions unexpectedly.
The Compounding Risk Scenario
Goldman stresses that no single risk alone would tip the U.S. into recession unless the shock were enormous. However, a combination of these risks materialising together would be far more damaging.
The bank singles out the pairing of an equity sell-off with AI-driven job losses as particularly dangerous. In that scenario, the Federal Reserve would likely cut rates more aggressively to cushion the blow.
The Fed is already expected to resume rate cuts later this year, after pausing in January.
