Catenaa, Thursday, January 22, 2026- Crypto markets are entering 2026 with structural adjustments expected to dominate over price swings, as institutional flows and macroeconomic pressures reshape bitcoin cycles, according to Kraken.
Kraken Global Economist Thomas Perfumo highlighted that bitcoin remains central to risk sentiment, but the demand and liquidity channels are evolving.
US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs and digital asset treasury firms accounted for nearly $44 billion in net spot demand in 2025, yet price gains lagged due to long-term holders supplying most marketable inventory.
Perfumo said this has created a market that absorbs inflows without triggering sharp price jumps.
The outlook cited macro factors such as moderate growth, persistent inflation, and slower policy easing as constraints on risk assets.
Kraken also identified stablecoin liquidity and evolving U.S. regulation, including the GENIUS Act, as key structural pillars influencing onchain liquidity and innovation clustering in 2026.
Institutional participation may determine bitcoin’s next major move.
ETF inflows slowed last year, and treasury firms face challenges issuing equity amid compressing premiums, which could limit their impact on price without a clear risk-on environment.
Beyond bitcoin, Kraken flagged tokenization and DeFi token economics as drivers of liquidity formation. Analysts expect Ethereum to benefit as institutions adopt tokenized real-world assets, while tokenized equities may open new global settlement flows.
The firm suggested 2026 could resemble a macro-driven stress test where liquidity structure matters as much as price, with bitcoin potentially testing $90,000 to $100,000 resistance levels.
The report underscores that crypto markets are increasingly influenced by institutional frameworks and macro conditions rather than speculative cycles.
