Catenaa, Saturday, February 21, 2026- Bitcoin’s ultimate bear market bottom is likely around $55,000, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, which says bottoms form over months rather than in a single capitulation.
The firm noted that bitcoin’s realized price, a historical support area during previous cycles, serves as a probable floor. Bitcoin currently trades more than 25% above this level.
In past bear markets, prices fell roughly 24% below the realized price after the FTX collapse and about 30% below it in 2018 before consolidating for four to six months.
CryptoQuant highlighted recent large daily realized losses, including $5.4 billion on February 5 when bitcoin fell 14% to $62,000
Despite the scale of these losses, cumulative monthly losses remain far below prior bear market levels, suggesting the structural bottom has not yet been reached.
Long-term holder behavior also shows limited capitulation, with sales near breakeven and about 55% of supply in profit, above the 45%–50% range seen at previous cycle lows.
Additional valuation indicators, including the MVRV ratio and Net Unrealized Profit and Loss metric, remain above historical capitulation zones.
CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator remains in the Bear Phase rather than the Extreme Bear Phase, which typically signals the start of multi-month bottoming periods.
Analysts note that past bottoms form gradually, with several months required for consolidation. Standard Chartered earlier projected bitcoin could drop to $50,000 before recovering by year-end, echoing the view that further downside is possible before a definitive market floor emerges.
