Catenaa, Sunday, February 08, 2026-Bitcoin’s continued decline is reviving concerns that the market may be following its historical four-year cycle, though K33 analysts say a repeat of past deep bear markets is unlikely.
The cryptocurrency has dropped roughly 40% from its October peak, including an 11% fall last week amid heightened global risk aversion.
K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde noted similarities to sell-offs in 2018 and 2022, driven by market behavior rather than fundamentals, but emphasized that growing institutional adoption, regulated inflows, and an easing rate environment differentiate the current cycle.
Lunde warned that fears of repeating cycles can become self-reinforcing as long-term holders trim exposure and new capital hesitates, creating selling pressure.
Despite this, he does not anticipate an 80% peak-to-trough decline like prior cycle collapses, citing the absence of forced deleveraging events such as those involving GBTC, Luna, 3AC, BlockFi, Genesis, and FTX in 2022.
Market indicators suggest a potential bottom may be forming. Bitcoin recorded a 90th-percentile trading day on February 2, with over $8 billion in volume, while derivatives open interest and funding rates fell sharply following roughly $1.8 billion in long liquidations.
Lunde identified $74,000 as critical support, with breaks below potentially driving prices toward the November 2021 peak near $69,000 or the 200-week moving average around $58,000.
