Catenaa, Monday, December 29, 2025-A recent decline in bitcoin mining activity could indicate a bullish turn for the cryptocurrency, according to a VanEck report analyzing historical patterns and network trends.
The report highlights that periods of shrinking hashrate have historically preceded positive returns. Since 2014, bitcoin showed gains 65% of the time over 90 days following mining slowdowns, compared with 54% when hashrate increased.
Analysts describe this as a contrarian signal linked to miner capitulation, when financially stressed operators exit the network.
In mid-December 2025, bitcoin’s hashrate fell 4%, the sharpest monthly decline since April 2024. Prolonged periods of reduced hashrate have previously correlated with larger positive returns, VanEck noted.
Mining profitability has also been under pressure. Breakeven electricity costs for a mid-generation Antminer S19 XP dropped from $0.12 per kilowatt-hour in late 2024 to $0.077 by mid-December 2025. Only lower-cost miners can remain viable under these conditions.
Bitcoin’s price remained volatile, hitting a low near $81,000 on Nov. 21 after peaking at $126,080 a month earlier.
As of Tuesday, it traded at $87,907, down 1.09% over the prior 24 hours.
Institutional buyers, particularly digital asset treasuries (DATs), have absorbed supply during the dip. From mid-November to mid-December, DATs purchased roughly 42,000 BTC, a 4% monthly increase, bringing holdings to approximately 1.09 million BTC.
VanEck indicated that future strategies may focus on financing BTC purchases through preference share sales rather than common stock issuance.
